Ochil presents closest fought contest

SCOTLAND in miniature, this region has a share of all Scotland's political battles.

It has the rural and burgh battles in which the Tories struggle to dislodge the SNP from seats that used to be true blue; the fast-changing commuter areas increasingly focussed on Edinburgh that pit Labour incumbents against their Liberal Democrat coalition partners; the SNP seeking to lever Labour out of working class fastnesses as well as New Towns.

Ochil is the toughest battle. Other seats are in play, but however much the Tories might wish it, there seems little prospect of Liberal Democrat Iain Smith being dislodged from North-East Fife by Ted Brocklebank, or SNP former leader John Swinney being removed from Tayside North by Tory deputy leader Murdo Fraser.

A much more promising prospect for Tories is Perth, where Roseanna Cunningham was run close in 2003, leaving a majority of only 727 votes.

Having lost its Westminster equivalent to Cunningham in 1995, Perth is now the Conservatives' best prospect for a gain north of the central belt, which is why it is getting the David Cameron treatment.

Its candidate is Liz Smith, a former economics teacher and keen cricketer. Although she has previously made a Westminster seat her priority, she is likely to make it on the regional list, from second place, ahead of list incumbent Mr Brocklebank.

Stirling used to be a highly marginal Tory-held seat at Westminster, until Michael Forsyth lost it to Labour's Anne McGuire 10 years ago. With a majority over the Tories of 2880 votes in 2003, Sylvia Jackson for Labour is justified in treating this as a marginal.

The two-time Tory candidate Brian Monteith is now departed from both Holyrood and his party, and the straight Labour-Tory contest has been confused by the SNP taking second place in 1999.

Nationalist Bruce Crawford has eight years' experience in the Scottish Parliament, now as party chairman, and has a significant local profile.

Fife is a region of Scotland on the move. The growth of Edinburgh is affecting its demographics and focus, making Forth crossings and Tay and Forth bridge tolls among the hottest topics.

While the LibDems look secure in the North-East - by far their biggest constituency membership and the base also for Westminster leader Sir Menzies Campbell - this is Labour's to defend.

But even the backyard of Chancellor Gordon Brown, Fife is far from a secure constituency for Labour. His ill-judged intervention in the Westminster by-election for Dunfermline and West Fife last year showed that once solid Labour votes can now be considered vulnerable.

In that case, it was vulnerable to LibDem Willie Rennie, appealing to the newcomers in new-build estates around the royal burgh.

Party leader Nicol Stephen is treating Dunfermline as a campaign proxy for all the areas of Scotland where Labour's vote is soft, and where he hopes to pick up on aspirational voters with diminishing party loyalties. His party already has strengths on the council.

Indeed, Fife is one part of the country where LibDems could lose out because of their past dominance of the kingdom's north-east wards.

The SNP hopes that the same weakening Labour phenomenon could see it making inroads against Labour in Glenrothes, the main part of Central Fife constituency held by Labour's Christine May and before her by First Minister Henry McLeish.

The Tories may well have done well on the regional list with three seats for eight years, but that is through doing so disappointingly in their target constituencies.

Internal party elections have not been kind to former TV boss Ted Brocklebank, putting him in a more vulnerable third place behind party deputy leader Murdo Fraser and Elizabeth Smith.

In both 1999 and 2003, the Tories took three seats. While gaining Ochil constituency, the SNP lost a list seat last time, with Mark Ruskell gaining one and fighting the region again this year as Scottish Green campaign manager.

LibDems took one list in addition to the North-East Fife constituency. Four years ago Keith Raffan left under an expenses cloud and was replaced by agriculture journalist Andrew Arbuckle.

His party has also given him no thanks, putting him in second place, behind Alex Cole-Hamilton, who works for youth charity Fairbridge.

Archie Stirling, who is the wealthy founder of the Scottish Voice party, is also bidding for a list seat.

12:01am Tuesday 10th April 2007

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