But SNP leader faces tough battle closer to home

IF the Scottish National Party has a political stronghold, this is it, and it does not get any stronger than the furthest north-east point of Banff and Buchan.

While he has to win votes in Cumbernauld, Kilmarnock, the Western Isles, and Hawick, he has an intriguing, personal local battle much closer to home.

North Sea oil, fishing, farming and rural conservatism is the backbone of Nationalist support in the region, while oil is also a vital support for its economic strategy. But strength here only served to highlight its poor showing in the rest of the country in 2003.

That year, two of its three constituency gains were from Labour in this region - Aberdeen North and Dundee East. In both cases, it wants to boost those slender majorities and make gains from Labour in the neighbouring city seats.

Indeed, Dundee is getting lots of campaign attention, as the city with two highly marginal seats, in which both Labour and SNP want to gain one and hold one. No surprise that Jack McConnell's first campaign stop was to promise an end to Tay Bridge tolls.

The east constituency, won by SNP health spokeswoman Shona Robison in 2003 with a majority of only 90, has long-standing Nationalist strengths. However, her victory four years ago would have been highly unlikely if the Scottish Socialists had stood a candidate.

As a cack-handed way of showing support for leftist Labour MSP John McAllion, they opted not to stand against him, which meant the anti-Labour vote went SNP. Mr McAllion has since joined the SSP and is second on its north-east list.

Ms Robison was a list MSP before 2003 and with her husband, Stewart Hosie, who also gained the nearest equivalent Westminster seat from Labour in 2005, they have built up formidable local Nationalist loyalty. Labour hopes that can be tied down by its candidate Iain Luke, the former Westminster MP.

But the SNP is putting resources into winning Dundee West from Labour. Its two-term MSP, Kate McLean, has opted to stand down from elected politics, showing every sign of being fed up with it and hoping to get a real life back.

She turned a tiny majority of 121 in 1999 into 1066, which might be partially explained by the SSP winning 1501 votes, beating the Tory, and the SNP vote dropping 9%.

Ms McLean, a former council leader, is spending this month running the campaign for Jill Shimi, who has a high profile as most recent council leader, with her Lochee ward in the heart of Dundee West, which she hopes to represent at Holyrood.

The west of the city looks relatively good for Labour because of its council representation there, even though the SNP has been making gains over recent years. It needs to gain seats such as this if it is to make any headway nationally.

Students make up around 10% of the population during term-time, but they are not all registered in the seat, and those that are tend not to vote.

In Aberdeen, local issues include the planned ring road, with Greens opposed, business in favour, and local unhappiness about both its route and the way it was decided.

Green co-leader Shiona Baird hopes to benefit from that on the list vote, while the SNP stresses its commitment to improved rail links.

The SNP's Brian Adam is defending a majority of only 457 he secured over Labour when he gained the Aberdeen North seat in 2003. Elaine Thomson, whom he beat, is back for revenge this year.

But if the polls suggest a national swing from Labour to SNP, it is neighbouring Labour Deputy Health Minister Lewis Macdonald, in Aberdeen Central, who ought to be more worried.

He kept his seat in 2003 with a majority of only 1242 or 6%. He would be at risk if the SNP's Karen Shirron can win some tactical votes from the LibDems, who rose six points last time round, to win a respectable 23% share.

This is an unpredictable seat, including one of the widest variations of socio-economic profiles in Scotland.

Dentistry is an issue, as the problems of NHS provision have been highlighted in the city and Mr Macdonald has been responsible, ensuring some salaried dentists and making Aberdeen home to a new dentistry faculty.

In Aberdeen South, LibDem leader Nicol Stephen ought to hold on, having turned a marginal - which is represented at Westminster by Labour's Anne Begg - into a secure seat. In 2003, the LibDem increased his vote share by 13 points to 46%, while the Labour vote fell by eight points to only 19%.

That was with Richard Baker as a candidate, and he went on to be a list Labour MSP. He has moved up one to the top of Labour's list this year.

Next month's Labour candidate in the South constituency has a limited chance against the LibDem leader, but Rami Okasha is tipped as one to watch for the future - a former student union leader with charisma.

Tories have put considerable effort into the north-east in the hope of seats such as Angus and Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine leading a revival nationally.

A surprise next month against the SNP's Andrew Welsh and the LibDems' Mike Rumbles would surprise even the Tories.

That does not frustrate only them. Labour regrets the lack of Tory activity, which might otherwise have pinned down SNP resources in their own backyard. "There's nothing we would like more than a Tory revival in the rural north-east," half-joked one Labour strategist at Glasgow headquarters.

12:01am Tuesday 10th April 2007

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