Parties line up to woo minority voters

IN a close-fought race for power at Holyrood, one safe bet for results night in the Scottish Exhibition and Conference Centre is that the SNP's Bashir Ahmad will become the first MSP from an ethnic minority.

The councillor is second on his party's list, helped there by the internal party politicking by both Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon, while former list leader Sandra White - not a cheerleader for the Salmond leadership - is relegated to third slot.

Mr Ahmad's presence helps the SNP make itself look inclusive in its definition of Scottishness, while demonstrating its competition for support amid the complex politics of the Pakistani-Scottish vote in the city.

The SNP is not alone in putting forward ethnic minority candidates in Glasgow. The Tories have Davena Rankin, defining herself as Scottish-Caribbean, in second place to the city party's council and Holyrood stalwart, Bill Aitken.

At the top of Labour's top-up list is Anas Sarwar, son of Labour's Glasgow Central MP, Mohammad Sarwar. But it would have to be a catastrophically bad day for Labour to lose so many constituency seats that it gets the compensating effect of Sarwar Junior winning a list MSP berth.

The hardest fought seat is Govan, where the SNP has a history of by-election triumph and general election disappointment. While some in Labour are nervous about parts of its heartlands where turnout is low, the more vulnerable seats include Glasgow Kelvin. This has a more patchy history than the rest of the city's steady general election support for Labour. A lot of the constituency was part of the old Hillhead seat that gave Roy Jenkins and the Social Democrat Party a historic by-election victory. But that was 25 years ago last month, and more recently, Sandra White has taken two second places.

Kelvin has a mixed electorate, including students, academics, and public sector professionals. While the LibDems see this as one of their better hopes, amid poor prospects in the city, it is one of those places where they are at loggerheads with Greens.

In the 2005 election, though under different boundaries, the Greens polled strongly in this part of the city, having their fifth best result in Britain. So while Greens are fighting for list seats throughout Scotland, this is the sole constituency in which they are fielding a candidate as well. There are slim prospects of a victory for Martin Bartos, a psychiatrist, but Greens are testing out the potential for making progress for a Westminster breakthrough.

That may help Labour's Pauline McNeill, who has reason to be nervous in defending her 3289 majority. That is just above the size of the vote received in 2003 by the Scottish Socialist Party and, with the SSP not standing this time, she risks votes going to other anti-Labour candidates.

That, indeed, is Labour's worry across Glasgow. Four years ago, the result was shaped not by Labour, but by the Scottish Socialist Party. What emerged was a clear pattern of the SSP, led by Tommy Sheridan and therefore having a strong Glasgow accent and flavour, taking votes from the SNP. The anti-Labour vote was split, and Labour emerged delighted with enhanced majorities. In Pollok, Mr Sheridan beat the SNP into second place, only 3341 votes short of Johann Lamont, now a deputy minister.

Mr Sheridan's decision not to stand this year is partly to ensure a clear "think left, vote left" message for the regional vote on the ballot form's left side, but it may also reflect the deep antipathy among some SSP activists to their former leader. The council elections in Pollok illustrate the point, with Mr Sheridan's mother, Alice, standing against his best man, Keith Baldassara.

Labour now wonders if the SSP vote will shift to the SNP, though it privately hopes it will stay at home instead. Nationalists previously took second place in every seat except Pollok and Rutherglen, where LibDem Robert Brown was a distant second to the now retired Janis Hughes.

The LibDems have caused some nervousness in Cathcart, with a surprise by-election win in King's Park, showing how crumbly the Labour vote can be on a bad day, and a doctor is standing on a Victoria Infirmary ticket against Labour's former council leader, Charlie Gordon.

On the list, Mr Sheridan is, as ever, one to watch. The Solidarity leader has local hero status in Glasgow, which his defamation case last year may well have boosted. While the other five elected as SSP MSPs four years ago would be lucky to return - including Rosie Kane in Glasgow - Mr Sheridan's ability to reach beyond normal politics is the best chance for his new, post-schism party of avoiding a hard left wipe-out.

Robert Brown, Tory Bill Aitken, and Green Patrick Harvie can have reasonable expectations of a return to Holyrood, but this is not fertile territory for bringing their number two candidates with them. Only the quirks of the electoral system may determine which gets in with them.

GLASGOW CONSTITUENCIES

12:01am Tuesday 10th April 2007

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