THE long-term Labour dominated capital, with 58 wards, is expected to have one of Scotland's biggest council changes, with possibly 12 fewer Labour members and around 11 SNP newcomers taking their place, according to analysts.

Since its inception in 1996, the City of Edinburgh Council has been Labour-heavy; before that the district and regional councils swung between hung, Tory-controlled, and Labour-controlled councils.

Its varied history has been echoed recently. Labour lost its majority on the council in 2005 when Steve Cardownie, deputy Lord Provost, defected to the SNP. That meant Labour's 29 councillors were evenly matched with the combined 29 of the LibDems, Tories, and Nationalists.

Mr Cardownie was thought to have made the strategic defection as he realised he would lose his seat at this year's elections under the new voting system.

But Labour regained its majority when John Longstaff, LibDem councillor for Kirkliston since 1999 and his party's culture spokesman, crossed the floor to give Labour its crucial 30, ending the party's reliance on the casting vote of Lesley Hinds, the Labour Lord Provost, to win tied decisions.

By-elections since 2003 had not affected power: the fight for Mike Pringle's Morningside ward returned another LibDem, Elizabeth O'Malley, in 2003. In 2004, the Tories held on to their Colinton ward when Jason Rust won a by-election after the death of Brian Meek, a former columnist for The Herald.

Following the death of Jim Gilchrist, a by-election took place for Murrayfield in November 2005, when Jeremy Balfour kept the seat Tory.

The Labour administration, having survived that political instability, has been dealing with a high council tax level and being seen as tarnished on other fronts, and there is a widespread expectation voters will punish the party on May 3.

Transport has featured high on the list of concerns: a referendum on congestion charging was firmly rejected, and the council was forced to tear up city centre road closures after a massive outcry from the public and the business community.

Labour also spectacularly misjudged the housing stock transfer ballot, and a heavy defeat left council housing under-resourced, while it has faced scandal and complete reform in social work, now known as the children and families department.

A number of senior Labour figures will be leaving the council this year with the hope of a position in Holyrood, including housing convener Sheila Gilmore and former leader Donald Anderson. Other councillors who have indicated they will stand down include: Robert Cairns (Lab) 33 years; Brian Fallon (Lab) 25; Kenneth Harrold (Lab) 23; Douglas Kerr (Lab) 19; Frank Russell (Lab) 19; Kingsley Thomas (Lab) 15; Philip Attridge (Lab) 9; John O'Donnell (Lab) 8; Andrew Scobbie (Lab) 7; Christopher Wigglesworth (Lab) 4; Ian Berry (Con) 28; David Guest (Con) 23; George Hunter (Con) 15; Allan Laing (Con) 4; and Fred Mackintosh (Lib Dem) 8.

Currently in charge at the city chambers is the Rev Ewan Aitken, who was quick to distance himself from Labour ministers in the Scottish Executive when he took over last year.

It was probably motivated in part by Jack McConnell telling the capital's citizens that it was "good for you" to lose thousands of public sector jobs to other parts of Scotland.

Edinburgh has well-known challenges resulting from its economic boom, with public sector workers being priced out of housing. Do not be misled by the look of prosperity: sea-front regeneration has not stopped Granton and Leith having serious social problems, and although Craigmillar is much improved, its community representatives have been locked in a legal battle with the council over concerns over the appointment of office bearers to Craigmillar Community Council.

Party manifesto commitments include the trams system: the SNP has ambitious bus plans to make up for scrapping the tram scheme; Lib Dems emphasise re-cycling, cycle lanes, and plans to rejuvenate small local shops; Tories stress a tight control on council tax and a crackdown on noisy students in tenements.

The SNP has never done well in the capital, and perhaps will not be helped by campaigning against the tram and airport rail link plans, yet the only way for the capital's Nationalists is up.

Labour will certainly be out of majority control, and with bad blood locally between Lib Dems and Labour, do not expect those two to do a deal after May 3.

It is far from clear, though, which combination of parties will emerge in power.

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