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Analysis

It's government, but not as we know it. The deal struck yesterday between Alex Salmond and the two Green MSPs still leaves the SNP leader far short of a working majority.

It is intended to demonstrate that the SNP leader is a bridge-builder, as a signal to larger parties that the New Salmond is open to deal-making - as he will surely have to remain if his administration is to last long.

But its real significance is in securing two vital MSP votes that could otherwise have joined with the Labour Party and which would have been sufficient to keep Jack McConnell in Bute House.

Barring a surprise deal between Labour and either the Tories or the LibDems - with both of those smaller parties expected to abstain - the agreement with the Greens confirms that Mr Salmond can expect to be in power from Wednesday.

Greens are not committed to support anything beyond elections for First Minister and his ministerial team, falling short of the model they had suggested of backing the SNP on budget bills and votes of no confidence.

What the Greens can claim is that the SNP will prioritise a bill introducing binding climate change targets, though they are expected to be 3% annual cuts rather than the Greens' preferred 4.5%.

As if to emphasise their weak negotiating position, the Greens' first whiff of a role in government was accompanied yesterday by the party's parliamentary staff being laid off last night because they lack the resources they had when they had seven MSPs.

The stand-off between the SNP and larger parties means Mr Salmond can only remain in power if he can secure the unity of his own 47-member group as well as a minimum of a further 19 votes from a shifting alliance of others.

The arithmetic forces him to look for issues on which he can get agreement. Tories, for instance, are looking forward to working with him on cutting business rates and slimming Scottish Enterprise.

Being in office will give him the backing of the civil service to draw up legislation, which the opposition will crucially lack. But it would make sense also for the new First Minister to use executive powers to push through change without having to seek parliament's approval.

That should be sufficient to change class sizes, set new targets for NHS waiting times, increase police numbers and plan a new Forth crossing. More controversial issues on which opposition parties wish to defeat SNP ministers will require them to work with each other, which is not guaranteed, and to be wary of being portrayed as wreckers.

The Green deal falls short of where Mr Salmond hoped to be when he started coalition building last weekend. With all his opponents nursing electoral bruises, he wanted LibDems to come on board, with the prospect of a three-party majority. Both Tories and SNP had ruled out coalition with each other, while Labour was never a likely ally.

LibDem leader Nicol Stephen began the week with an agreement with Mr Salmond that LibDems would publicly rule out a deal with Labour, even if talks with the SNP got nowhere. That was delivered last Sunday by LibDem campaign director Tavish Scott.

But a meeting of MSPs then firmed up the LibDem position on talks with the SNP. Despite some of the 16 members wanting to leave options open, the LibDems were in no mood to talk, with most wanting to be in opposition.

Partly, this is personal, having seen Mr Salmond take Gordon from the LibDems, and thinking it would not be easy to work with him. Partly, it is an expectation that he should be allowed to try a minority administration, and will find it so difficult that he will be willing to give more ground in future negotiations than he would in his triumphant mood this month.

Agreement
1. The SNP and the Scottish Green Party agree a new government in Scotland will place addressing climate change at its heart.

2. They will oppose new nuclear power stations, agree to early legislation to reduce climate-change pollution and believe Scotland can be more successful if independent.

3. The Greens are committed to supporting the SNP in votes for First Minister and ministerial appointments. The SNP agrees to consult the Green MSPs in advance regarding each year's legislative and policy programme.

4. The SNP also agree to be sympathetic towards issues raised by the Greens in parliament, including motions and members' bills.

12:40am Saturday 12th May 2007

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